PAGASA's latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Metro Manila's high at 34°C on May 17 amid a high pressure ridge promoting fair skies with only 20% rain chance, yet trader consensus spreads implied probabilities evenly across 34–36°C due to persistent forecast-model divergence and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1–2°C in Quezon City stations. Recent actuals, like 34.4°C on May 14, slightly outpaced predictions amid intense solar insolation during the dry season, while light easterly winds and isolated thunderstorms introduce uncertainty—clearer skies could push toward 36°C, thicker clouds toward 33°C. Sub-seasonal outlooks signal warmer-than-average conditions through May 20; watch PAGASA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Manila il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Manila il 17 maggio?
35°C 25%
34°C 23%
36°C 16%
33°C 11%
29°C o inferiore
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
11%
34°C
23%
35°C
25%
36°C
20%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C o superiore
<1%
35°C 25%
34°C 23%
36°C 16%
33°C 11%
29°C o inferiore
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
11%
34°C
23%
35°C
25%
36°C
20%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C o superiore
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLPAGASA's latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Metro Manila's high at 34°C on May 17 amid a high pressure ridge promoting fair skies with only 20% rain chance, yet trader consensus spreads implied probabilities evenly across 34–36°C due to persistent forecast-model divergence and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1–2°C in Quezon City stations. Recent actuals, like 34.4°C on May 14, slightly outpaced predictions amid intense solar insolation during the dry season, while light easterly winds and isolated thunderstorms introduce uncertainty—clearer skies could push toward 36°C, thicker clouds toward 33°C. Sub-seasonal outlooks signal warmer-than-average conditions through May 20; watch PAGASA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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