Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
16°C 37%
17°C 36%
18°C 15%
19°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 mag 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
37%
17°C
36%
18°C
15%
19°C
9%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 37%
17°C 36%
18°C 15%
19°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 mag 2026
13°C or below
$774 Vol.
1%
14°C
$283 Vol.
3%
15°C
$361 Vol.
8%
16°C
$593 Vol.
37%
17°C
$283 Vol.
36%
18°C
$529 Vol.
15%
19°C
$593 Vol.
9%
20°C
$569 Vol.
3%
21°C
$294 Vol.
1%
22°C
$675 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,132 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$6,022Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,022Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts peg Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 at 17°C under clearing skies following heavy showers today (May 13), with minimal precipitation risk and light winds, driving trader consensus toward 16-18°C outcomes with over 70% combined implied probability. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles align on a cool post-frontal air mass, about 4-5°C below mid-May climatological norms of 21-22°C, due to northerly advection limiting insolation despite diurnal heating potential. Close odds reflect uncertainty in residual high cloud timing—faster dissipation could push peaks to 19-20°C, while lingering moisture caps at 16°C or lower. AEMET hourly updates and new ECMWF 00z runs tomorrow may refine this ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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