Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 70-71°F in New York City today at 97.5%, reflecting strong alignment with the National Weather Service's latest guidance projecting a peak near 71°F at Central Park observatory. This positioning stems from recent model consensus across short-range forecasts like the NAM and HRRR, which show peak heating capped by persistent mid-level clouds, moderate south winds around 10 mph, and residual cool air from yesterday's frontal passage, consistent with the climatological normal of 71°F for May 13. Ensemble predictions exhibit tight clustering with minimal spread, underscoring high confidence amid stable boundary layer conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to push toward 72-73°F (2.3% implied odds) or isolated showers suppressing the high, though official updates through 4 PM EDT peak heating are unlikely to shift dramatically.