Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Seoul il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa a Seoul il 17 maggio?
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
16°C 18%
14°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
12°C o inferiore
11%
13°C
11%
14°C
13%
15°C
27%
16°C
18%
17°C
24%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C o superiore
1%
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
16°C 18%
14°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
12°C o inferiore
$105 Vol.
11%
13°C
$113 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
13%
15°C
$31 Vol.
27%
16°C
$24 Vol.
18%
17°C
$27 Vol.
24%
18°C
$94 Vol.
1%
19°C
$227 Vol.
1%
20°C
$155 Vol.
1%
21°C
$291 Vol.
1%
22°C o superiore
$43 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,109Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,109Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSITrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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