Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Helsinki on May 16?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on May 16?
18°C 37%
17°C 27%
19°C 21%
16°C 11.1%
$10,737 Vol.
$10,737 Vol.
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
11%
17°C
27%
18°C
37%
19°C
21%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 37%
17°C 27%
19°C 21%
16°C 11.1%
$10,737 Vol.
$10,737 Vol.
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
11%
17°C
27%
18°C
37%
19°C
21%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to 18°C as Helsinki-Vantaa Airport's highest temperature on May 16, driven by the latest Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks near 18°C amid a high-pressure ridge and mild southerly winds fostering above-normal warmth. This clusters sentiment around 17–19°C (combined ~87%), aligning with mid-May climatology where average highs reach 15–16°C but recent spring 2026 trends show anomalies up to +2°C, as seen in early May highs near 16°C. Model ensembles exhibit a 2–3°C spread due to cloud cover and frontal timing uncertainties; watch FMI's final afternoon update on May 15 for potential shifts before resolution based on official 24-hour maximum readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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