Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on May 17, with implied odds favoring 28°C or higher at 32% amid a flat distribution across 22–26°C outcomes near 19–20%. Recent developments include above-average warmth over the past week, with highs reaching 23–24°C despite intermittent rain and cloudy skies, per Hydrometcentre of Russia guidance, as southerly winds advected mild air masses. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud cover limiting solar heating (favoring mid-20s), potential high-pressure ridge intensification for upper-20s peaks, or incoming fronts introducing precipitation and cooler northerlies below 22°C. New ECMWF and GFS model runs every 12 hours, alongside Hydrometcentre updates, will sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution using official Vnukovo Airport observations. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 19–21°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Mosca il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Mosca il 17 maggio?
24°C 38%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
10%
22°C
18%
23°C
28%
24°C
28%
25°C
20%
26°C
15%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 38%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
18°C or below
$75 Vol.
1%
19°C
$10 Vol.
1%
20°C
$10 Vol.
1%
21°C
$216 Vol.
10%
22°C
$7 Vol.
18%
23°C
$1 Vol.
28%
24°C
$13 Vol.
28%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
15%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$21 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on May 17, with implied odds favoring 28°C or higher at 32% amid a flat distribution across 22–26°C outcomes near 19–20%. Recent developments include above-average warmth over the past week, with highs reaching 23–24°C despite intermittent rain and cloudy skies, per Hydrometcentre of Russia guidance, as southerly winds advected mild air masses. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud cover limiting solar heating (favoring mid-20s), potential high-pressure ridge intensification for upper-20s peaks, or incoming fronts introducing precipitation and cooler northerlies below 22°C. New ECMWF and GFS model runs every 12 hours, alongside Hydrometcentre updates, will sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution using official Vnukovo Airport observations. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 19–21°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$353Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on May 17, with implied odds favoring 28°C or higher at 32% amid a flat distribution across 22–26°C outcomes near 19–20%. Recent developments include above-average warmth over the past week, with highs reaching 23–24°C despite intermittent rain and cloudy skies, per Hydrometcentre of Russia guidance, as southerly winds advected mild air masses. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud cover limiting solar heating (favoring mid-20s), potential high-pressure ridge intensification for upper-20s peaks, or incoming fronts introducing precipitation and cooler northerlies below 22°C. New ECMWF and GFS model runs every 12 hours, alongside Hydrometcentre updates, will sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution using official Vnukovo Airport observations. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 19–21°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$353Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on May 17, with implied odds favoring 28°C or higher at 32% amid a flat distribution across 22–26°C outcomes near 19–20%. Recent developments include above-average warmth over the past week, with highs reaching 23–24°C despite intermittent rain and cloudy skies, per Hydrometcentre of Russia guidance, as southerly winds advected mild air masses. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud cover limiting solar heating (favoring mid-20s), potential high-pressure ridge intensification for upper-20s peaks, or incoming fronts introducing precipitation and cooler northerlies below 22°C. New ECMWF and GFS model runs every 12 hours, alongside Hydrometcentre updates, will sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution using official Vnukovo Airport observations. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 19–21°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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