Current National Weather Service ensemble forecasts for New York City place the May 19 overnight low near 64–68 °F, driven by a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, light winds, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. These conditions produce a narrow range of possible minima, with model spread arising mainly from small differences in boundary-layer moisture and the exact timing of any late-day clearing. Historical May climatology shows average Central Park lows around 55 °F, so the current setup favors a notably milder night. Traders therefore assign the tightest probabilities to the 62–69 °F bins, reflecting consensus on the dominant synoptic pattern while leaving room for modest adjustments from the final 48-hour model runs.