Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles has tightened around a 13–15 °C maximum for Warsaw on May 16, placing 13 °C as the clear market favorite at 52.5 % implied probability. Persistent low cloud cover and a cool northerly airflow across central Poland are suppressing daytime heating, well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19 °C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This represents a rapid shift from the warmer high-pressure regime observed on May 14, when temperatures reached near 18 °C. With resolution based on official station observations later today, traders are closely tracking any last-minute model adjustments or clearing trends that could push the peak toward 14 °C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
13°C 55%
14°C 27%
12°C or below 12.7%
15°C 4.3%
$34,368 Vol.
$34,368 Vol.
16 mag 2026
12°C or below
13%
13°C
55%
14°C
27%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 55%
14°C 27%
12°C or below 12.7%
15°C 4.3%
$34,368 Vol.
$34,368 Vol.
16 mag 2026
12°C or below
$4,632 Vol.
13%
13°C
$4,165 Vol.
55%
14°C
$4,050 Vol.
27%
15°C
$4,398 Vol.
4%
16°C
$3,290 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,488 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,690 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,842 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,000 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,223 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$2,599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles has tightened around a 13–15 °C maximum for Warsaw on May 16, placing 13 °C as the clear market favorite at 52.5 % implied probability. Persistent low cloud cover and a cool northerly airflow across central Poland are suppressing daytime heating, well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19 °C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This represents a rapid shift from the warmer high-pressure regime observed on May 14, when temperatures reached near 18 °C. With resolution based on official station observations later today, traders are closely tracking any last-minute model adjustments or clearing trends that could push the peak toward 14 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$34,368Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles has tightened around a 13–15 °C maximum for Warsaw on May 16, placing 13 °C as the clear market favorite at 52.5 % implied probability. Persistent low cloud cover and a cool northerly airflow across central Poland are suppressing daytime heating, well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19 °C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This represents a rapid shift from the warmer high-pressure regime observed on May 14, when temperatures reached near 18 °C. With resolution based on official station observations later today, traders are closely tracking any last-minute model adjustments or clearing trends that could push the peak toward 14 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,368Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles has tightened around a 13–15 °C maximum for Warsaw on May 16, placing 13 °C as the clear market favorite at 52.5 % implied probability. Persistent low cloud cover and a cool northerly airflow across central Poland are suppressing daytime heating, well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19 °C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This represents a rapid shift from the warmer high-pressure regime observed on May 14, when temperatures reached near 18 °C. With resolution based on official station observations later today, traders are closely tracking any last-minute model adjustments or clearing trends that could push the peak toward 14 °C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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