Current forecast models from European meteorological centers point to a cool, mostly overcast day in Warsaw on May 17, with a high near 12–13°C driven by a fresh northerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Light showers are possible, further suppressing temperatures, while recent runs show modest warming potential if partial breaks occur in the afternoon. This positions 12°C and 13°C as the tightest market-implied outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind speeds; a slightly stronger high-pressure ridge could allow 14°C, whereas continued stratiform clouds or earlier rain would favor 11°C. Historical May averages near 19°C underscore how this cool anomaly stems from the current synoptic pattern.