Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 18 maggio?
19°C or higher 70%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
16°C 2.4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
21%
19°C or higher
70%
19°C or higher 70%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
16°C 2.4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
9°C or below
$582 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$602 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,087 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$446 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$123 Vol.
1%
14°C
$736 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$566 Vol.
1%
16°C
$440 Vol.
2%
17°C
$309 Vol.
6%
18°C
$166 Vol.
21%
19°C or higher
$248 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,306Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,306Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWATrader consensus assigns a 71% implied probability to a Warsaw high of 19°C or above on May 18, reflecting ensemble model runs that show warm advection from the south under building high pressure. Recent ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate daytime maxima of 20–22°C amid light southerly flow, reduced cloud cover, and a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the mid-May climatological mean near 17°C. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread on boundary-layer mixing and downslope warming effects. Forecasters at the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management are expected to issue refined guidance within the next 48 hours that could further anchor or shift these near-term probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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