Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute place Amsterdam’s May 18 maximum near 15°C under moderate northwest flow and variable cloud cover. This keeps the 15°C bracket in the lead at 38% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 14°C and 16°C, while historical May averages of 16–18°C provide context for the modest suppression. Minor model spread on afternoon sunshine duration and sea-breeze effects creates the tight clustering around these three outcomes, with higher brackets remaining low-probability given limited warming potential. Updated model runs and Schiphol observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak and shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta ad Amsterdam il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta ad Amsterdam il 18 maggio?
15°C 35%
14°C 28%
16°C 22%
13°C 8.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
28%
15°C
35%
16°C
22%
17°C
5%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 35%
14°C 28%
16°C 22%
13°C 8.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
8°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$202 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$144 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$184 Vol.
1%
12°C
$179 Vol.
4%
13°C
$184 Vol.
9%
14°C
$541 Vol.
28%
15°C
$258 Vol.
35%
16°C
$226 Vol.
22%
17°C
$99 Vol.
5%
18°C or higher
$127 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute place Amsterdam’s May 18 maximum near 15°C under moderate northwest flow and variable cloud cover. This keeps the 15°C bracket in the lead at 38% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 14°C and 16°C, while historical May averages of 16–18°C provide context for the modest suppression. Minor model spread on afternoon sunshine duration and sea-breeze effects creates the tight clustering around these three outcomes, with higher brackets remaining low-probability given limited warming potential. Updated model runs and Schiphol observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak and shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,461Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute place Amsterdam’s May 18 maximum near 15°C under moderate northwest flow and variable cloud cover. This keeps the 15°C bracket in the lead at 38% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 14°C and 16°C, while historical May averages of 16–18°C provide context for the modest suppression. Minor model spread on afternoon sunshine duration and sea-breeze effects creates the tight clustering around these three outcomes, with higher brackets remaining low-probability given limited warming potential. Updated model runs and Schiphol observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak and shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,461Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMCurrent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute place Amsterdam’s May 18 maximum near 15°C under moderate northwest flow and variable cloud cover. This keeps the 15°C bracket in the lead at 38% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 14°C and 16°C, while historical May averages of 16–18°C provide context for the modest suppression. Minor model spread on afternoon sunshine duration and sea-breeze effects creates the tight clustering around these three outcomes, with higher brackets remaining low-probability given limited warming potential. Updated model runs and Schiphol observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak and shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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