Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
25°C 36%
24°C 26%
26°C 25%
27°C 11%
NUOVO
$41,521 Vol.
NUOVO
$41,521 Vol.
16 mag 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
26%
25°C
36%
26°C
25%
27°C
11%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 36%
24°C 26%
26°C 25%
27°C 11%
NUOVO
$41,521 Vol.
NUOVO
$41,521 Vol.
16 mag 2026
21°C or below
$10,433 Vol.
1%
22°C
$5,646 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,700 Vol.
3%
24°C
$3,746 Vol.
26%
25°C
$3,322 Vol.
36%
26°C
$1,928 Vol.
25%
27°C
$1,878 Vol.
11%
28°C
$3,168 Vol.
5%
29°C
$3,276 Vol.
1%
30°C
$2,736 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,808 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$41,521Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,521Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti