Mid-May minimum temperatures in Hong Kong typically fall between 24°C and 27°C under stable pre-monsoon conditions, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly across 24°C through 27°C. Overnight lows at the Hong Kong Observatory’s Tsim Sha Tsui station reflect a balance of moderate humidity, light southerly flow, and the urban heat island effect that prevents sharper cooling. Recent model consensus shows no strong frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover through May 19 that would shift the range materially, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equally likely. Updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and ensemble guidance issued over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal on whether marginal increases in moisture or wind speed nudge the minimum toward the upper or lower end of this narrow band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 19 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 19 maggio?
24°C 26%
26°C 21%
27°C 19%
23°C 10.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 mag 2026
19°C o inferiore
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
11%
24°C
21%
25°C
22%
26°C
21%
27°C
19%
28°C
1%
29°C o superiore
1%
24°C 26%
26°C 21%
27°C 19%
23°C 10.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 mag 2026
19°C o inferiore
$322 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$682 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$281 Vol.
3%
22°C
$92 Vol.
1%
23°C
$146 Vol.
11%
24°C
$4 Vol.
21%
25°C
$53 Vol.
22%
26°C
$5 Vol.
21%
27°C
$5 Vol.
19%
28°C
$199 Vol.
1%
29°C o superiore
$116 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mid-May minimum temperatures in Hong Kong typically fall between 24°C and 27°C under stable pre-monsoon conditions, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly across 24°C through 27°C. Overnight lows at the Hong Kong Observatory’s Tsim Sha Tsui station reflect a balance of moderate humidity, light southerly flow, and the urban heat island effect that prevents sharper cooling. Recent model consensus shows no strong frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover through May 19 that would shift the range materially, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equally likely. Updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and ensemble guidance issued over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal on whether marginal increases in moisture or wind speed nudge the minimum toward the upper or lower end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,905Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mid-May minimum temperatures in Hong Kong typically fall between 24°C and 27°C under stable pre-monsoon conditions, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly across 24°C through 27°C. Overnight lows at the Hong Kong Observatory’s Tsim Sha Tsui station reflect a balance of moderate humidity, light southerly flow, and the urban heat island effect that prevents sharper cooling. Recent model consensus shows no strong frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover through May 19 that would shift the range materially, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equally likely. Updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and ensemble guidance issued over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal on whether marginal increases in moisture or wind speed nudge the minimum toward the upper or lower end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,905Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETMid-May minimum temperatures in Hong Kong typically fall between 24°C and 27°C under stable pre-monsoon conditions, which explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly across 24°C through 27°C. Overnight lows at the Hong Kong Observatory’s Tsim Sha Tsui station reflect a balance of moderate humidity, light southerly flow, and the urban heat island effect that prevents sharper cooling. Recent model consensus shows no strong frontal passages or enhanced cloud cover through May 19 that would shift the range materially, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equally likely. Updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and ensemble guidance issued over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal on whether marginal increases in moisture or wind speed nudge the minimum toward the upper or lower end of this narrow band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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