Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the minimum temperature reached exactly 25°C on May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions where nighttime radiative cooling under stable high-pressure systems from the South China Sea produces lows averaging 24–27°C. This verified station reading, rather than forecast models, underpins the market’s near-certain 99.9% implied probability for the 25°C outcome. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include unexpected sky clearance and lighter winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects at the observatory site made such deviations highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C o inferiore <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
15 mag 2026
18°C o inferiore
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C o inferiore <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
15 mag 2026
18°C o inferiore
$2,490 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,298 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,072 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,238 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,640 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,002 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the minimum temperature reached exactly 25°C on May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions where nighttime radiative cooling under stable high-pressure systems from the South China Sea produces lows averaging 24–27°C. This verified station reading, rather than forecast models, underpins the market’s near-certain 99.9% implied probability for the 25°C outcome. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include unexpected sky clearance and lighter winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects at the observatory site made such deviations highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,273Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the minimum temperature reached exactly 25°C on May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions where nighttime radiative cooling under stable high-pressure systems from the South China Sea produces lows averaging 24–27°C. This verified station reading, rather than forecast models, underpins the market’s near-certain 99.9% implied probability for the 25°C outcome. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include unexpected sky clearance and lighter winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects at the observatory site made such deviations highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,273Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the minimum temperature reached exactly 25°C on May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions where nighttime radiative cooling under stable high-pressure systems from the South China Sea produces lows averaging 24–27°C. This verified station reading, rather than forecast models, underpins the market’s near-certain 99.9% implied probability for the 25°C outcome. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include unexpected sky clearance and lighter winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects at the observatory site made such deviations highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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