Latest National Weather Service and ECMWF model runs for Miami International Airport show the May 19 overnight low centered in the upper 70s, with forecast guidance oscillating between 76–81 °F depending on the timing of any nocturnal cloud deck and southeasterly wind speeds. This narrow range explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 76–79 °F and 80–81 °F bands, while the 36 % on 73 °F or below reflects residual uncertainty from possible enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies. Historical May climatology places the average low near 74 °F with a standard deviation of roughly 3 °F, underscoring how modest shifts in dew-point depression or boundary-layer mixing can swing the observed minimum by several degrees before the 24-hour resolution window closes.