Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Munich on May 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
13°C 36%
12°C 26%
14°C 25%
15°C 11%
NUOVO
$11,067 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,067 Vol.
15 mag 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
26%
13°C
36%
14°C
25%
15°C
11%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
1%
13°C 36%
12°C 26%
14°C 25%
15°C 11%
NUOVO
$11,067 Vol.
NUOVO
$11,067 Vol.
15 mag 2026
7°C or below
$714 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$407 Vol.
1%
10°C
$308 Vol.
1%
11°C
$672 Vol.
3%
12°C
$1,504 Vol.
26%
13°C
$888 Vol.
36%
14°C
$1,587 Vol.
25%
15°C
$1,458 Vol.
11%
16°C
$2,073 Vol.
3%
17°C or higher
$907 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$11,067Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,067Data di fine
15 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 35% probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on May 15, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (24%) nearly tied amid model disagreements on cloud cover evolution. Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts cluster daytime highs in this narrow 12–14°C range under a persistent low-pressure trough ushering cool maritime air and overcast skies, limiting solar insolation and surface heating—recent observations confirm similar muted peaks of 11–13°C. GFS runs favor cooler 12°C outcomes with persistent stratus clouds, while ECMWF perturbations allow slight warming to 14°C if afternoon breaks emerge. This genuine uncertainty reflects typical 1–2°C spreads in 24-hour forecasts; monitor DWD hourly data and satellite imagery for cloud thinning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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