Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.8% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies. This aligns with recent observations of a May heatwave peaking near 38°C earlier in the month, transitioning to typical late-dry-season warmth averaging 26°C historically. Model ensembles show tight agreement, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge of Gulf moisture triggering afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover to suppress peaks below 24°C, though SMN estimates only 20–30% precip odds; monitor evening updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.8%
23°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
NUOVO
$26,315 Vol.
NUOVO
$26,315 Vol.
16 mag 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 99.8%
23°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
NUOVO
$26,315 Vol.
NUOVO
$26,315 Vol.
16 mag 2026
14°C or below
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,230 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,515 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,266 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,174 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$9,090 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,213 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,057 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$4,816 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.8% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies. This aligns with recent observations of a May heatwave peaking near 38°C earlier in the month, transitioning to typical late-dry-season warmth averaging 26°C historically. Model ensembles show tight agreement, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge of Gulf moisture triggering afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover to suppress peaks below 24°C, though SMN estimates only 20–30% precip odds; monitor evening updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$26,315Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.8% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies. This aligns with recent observations of a May heatwave peaking near 38°C earlier in the month, transitioning to typical late-dry-season warmth averaging 26°C historically. Model ensembles show tight agreement, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge of Gulf moisture triggering afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover to suppress peaks below 24°C, though SMN estimates only 20–30% precip odds; monitor evening updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,315Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.8% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies. This aligns with recent observations of a May heatwave peaking near 38°C earlier in the month, transitioning to typical late-dry-season warmth averaging 26°C historically. Model ensembles show tight agreement, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge of Gulf moisture triggering afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover to suppress peaks below 24°C, though SMN estimates only 20–30% precip odds; monitor evening updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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