Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Città del Messico il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Città del Messico il 17 maggio?
26°C or higher 99%
25°C 17%
24°C 5%
21°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
17%
26°C or higher
78%
26°C or higher 99%
25°C 17%
24°C 5%
21°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 mag 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
1%
24°C
$29 Vol.
5%
25°C
$6 Vol.
17%
26°C or higher
$3 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$158Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$158Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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