Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration forecasts, pricing a 25°C high at 32.5% and 27°C or higher at 35.5%, driven by today's mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers limiting solar insolation. The latest model runs from CWA project daytime highs of 22–25°C amid a moist southerly flow ushering in early plum rain season patterns, capping peak temperatures despite mid-May climatological averages near 28°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon cloud thinning for brief warming bursts versus persistent convective activity; ensemble spreads highlight this variability. Hourly observations from Taipei stations will clarify resolution by evening, with new CWA updates expected midday.