Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$318,808 Vol.
$318,808 Vol.
14 mag 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$318,808 Vol.
$318,808 Vol.
14 mag 2026
21°C or below
$3,621 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,675 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,020 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,298 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,131 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$33,172 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$33,653 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$78,136 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$63,624 Vol.
100%
30°C
$62,358 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$28,120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$318,808Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$318,808Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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