Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
13°C 44%
14°C 26%
12°C 21%
11°C 3.9%
NUOVO
$13,259 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,259 Vol.
16 mag 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
21%
13°C
44%
14°C
26%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 44%
14°C 26%
12°C 21%
11°C 3.9%
NUOVO
$13,259 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,259 Vol.
16 mag 2026
8°C or below
$1,863 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,389 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,330 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$673 Vol.
4%
12°C
$1,263 Vol.
21%
13°C
$1,662 Vol.
44%
14°C
$1,669 Vol.
26%
15°C
$511 Vol.
3%
16°C
$564 Vol.
1%
17°C
$944 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$1,391 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$13,259Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,259Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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