Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on May 14, driven by official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the AMEDAS network at Haneda Airport station, which recorded a peak of 24.0°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly breezes. This aligns precisely with ensemble forecast models from NOAA and JMA projecting daily highs of 23–25°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 23.5°C maximums. While final JMA ratification is pending tomorrow, revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification; an unlikely sensor data adjustment or overlooked reading could theoretically shift outcomes higher, though current multi-station evidence solidifies the positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$111,035 Vol.
$111,035 Vol.
14 mag 2026
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$111,035 Vol.
$111,035 Vol.
14 mag 2026
24°C
$20,698 Vol.
100%
25°C
$17,446 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,768 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$11,570 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on May 14, driven by official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the AMEDAS network at Haneda Airport station, which recorded a peak of 24.0°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly breezes. This aligns precisely with ensemble forecast models from NOAA and JMA projecting daily highs of 23–25°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 23.5°C maximums. While final JMA ratification is pending tomorrow, revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification; an unlikely sensor data adjustment or overlooked reading could theoretically shift outcomes higher, though current multi-station evidence solidifies the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$111,035Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on May 14, driven by official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the AMEDAS network at Haneda Airport station, which recorded a peak of 24.0°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly breezes. This aligns precisely with ensemble forecast models from NOAA and JMA projecting daily highs of 23–25°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 23.5°C maximums. While final JMA ratification is pending tomorrow, revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification; an unlikely sensor data adjustment or overlooked reading could theoretically shift outcomes higher, though current multi-station evidence solidifies the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$111,035Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Tokyo on May 14, driven by official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the AMEDAS network at Haneda Airport station, which recorded a peak of 24.0°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly breezes. This aligns precisely with ensemble forecast models from NOAA and JMA projecting daily highs of 23–25°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 23.5°C maximums. While final JMA ratification is pending tomorrow, revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification; an unlikely sensor data adjustment or overlooked reading could theoretically shift outcomes higher, though current multi-station evidence solidifies the positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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