The market's overwhelming consensus on 13°C stems from the latest high-resolution ensemble forecasts from the German Weather Service and ECMWF, which project a daytime maximum in Munich under stable high-pressure influence and light northerly flow. These runs show temperatures climbing from an overnight low near 7°C to a peak around midday, aligning with climatological normals for mid-May and exhibiting minimal spread across model members. A potential afternoon increase in cloud cover or modest radiative cooling is expected to cap readings at this level. Only a sharp, unforecasted shift toward warmer southerly advection or prolonged clear-sky insolation could realistically push the observed high into the 14–15°C range, scenarios currently assigned low probability in updated model guidance.