Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.