The newly confirmed Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths including only four laboratory-confirmed fatalities as of May 15, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds against an international emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and DRC health authorities have initiated rapid coordination and testing, mirroring the swift containment of the 2025 Kasai outbreak that ended without broader escalation. Historical patterns show DRC Ebola events, typically driven by Zaire ebolavirus and spread through direct contact with bodily fluids, remain localized when response measures activate early, with no current evidence of sustained transmission chains or cross-border cases. Ongoing surveillance for case growth and contact-tracing results will clarify whether outbreak dynamics approach Public Health Emergency of International Concern thresholds.