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icon for Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

icon for Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

11% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
11% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.A new Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, confirmed by Africa CDC on May 15 with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths including 13 laboratory-verified infections, currently drives the 89% market-implied probability against any U.S. case by June 30. The affected Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones have limited international air connectivity and rapid contact-tracing infrastructure that has contained prior DRC outbreaks within weeks. Official CDC and WHO assessments assign low importation risk to the United States given strengthened border surveillance, ring-vaccination capacity, and the virus’s primary transmission via direct bodily-fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedent shows no U.S. cases linked to the 13 previous DRC outbreaks, and the brief remaining window before June 30 further reduces the chance of undetected travel-related introduction before enhanced monitoring detects anomalies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$173
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.A new Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, confirmed by Africa CDC on May 15 with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths including 13 laboratory-verified infections, currently drives the 89% market-implied probability against any U.S. case by June 30. The affected Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones have limited international air connectivity and rapid contact-tracing infrastructure that has contained prior DRC outbreaks within weeks. Official CDC and WHO assessments assign low importation risk to the United States given strengthened border surveillance, ring-vaccination capacity, and the virus’s primary transmission via direct bodily-fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedent shows no U.S. cases linked to the 13 previous DRC outbreaks, and the brief remaining window before June 30 further reduces the chance of undetected travel-related introduction before enhanced monitoring detects anomalies.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$173
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Domande frequenti

"Ebola case in the US by June 30?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 11% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 11¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 11% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Ebola case in the US by June 30?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il May 15, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Ebola case in the US by June 30?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Ebola case in the US by June 30?" è 11% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 11% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Ebola case in the US by June 30?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.