Forecasts for below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity, driven by developing El Niño conditions, form the main reason traders favor no Category 4 landfall before 2027 at 61.5% implied probability. El Niño strengthens upper-level winds that increase vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting storm organization and rapid intensification needed for sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major hurricanes overall, with a below-normal 32% chance of any Category 3–5 U.S. landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s daily tropical outlooks began May 15, and NOAA’s seasonal update arrives May 21, likely reinforcing these signals. Historical data show Category 4 U.S. landfalls in fewer than half of seasons, and a suppressed year further tilts odds against one occurring by November 30, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Forecasts for below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity, driven by developing El Niño conditions, form the main reason traders favor no Category 4 landfall before 2027 at 61.5% implied probability. El Niño strengthens upper-level winds that increase vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting storm organization and rapid intensification needed for sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major hurricanes overall, with a below-normal 32% chance of any Category 3–5 U.S. landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s daily tropical outlooks began May 15, and NOAA’s seasonal update arrives May 21, likely reinforcing these signals. Historical data show Category 4 U.S. landfalls in fewer than half of seasons, and a suppressed year further tilts odds against one occurring by November 30, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,420Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Forecasts for below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity, driven by developing El Niño conditions, form the main reason traders favor no Category 4 landfall before 2027 at 61.5% implied probability. El Niño strengthens upper-level winds that increase vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting storm organization and rapid intensification needed for sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major hurricanes overall, with a below-normal 32% chance of any Category 3–5 U.S. landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s daily tropical outlooks began May 15, and NOAA’s seasonal update arrives May 21, likely reinforcing these signals. Historical data show Category 4 U.S. landfalls in fewer than half of seasons, and a suppressed year further tilts odds against one occurring by November 30, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,420Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Forecasts for below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity, driven by developing El Niño conditions, form the main reason traders favor no Category 4 landfall before 2027 at 61.5% implied probability. El Niño strengthens upper-level winds that increase vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting storm organization and rapid intensification needed for sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major hurricanes overall, with a below-normal 32% chance of any Category 3–5 U.S. landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s daily tropical outlooks began May 15, and NOAA’s seasonal update arrives May 21, likely reinforcing these signals. Historical data show Category 4 U.S. landfalls in fewer than half of seasons, and a suppressed year further tilts odds against one occurring by November 30, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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