NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforced expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period after only three brief tropical storms have formed to date. With peak activity approaching and no hurricanes yet observed, the odds of a Category 4 system—requiring sustained winds of 130–156 mph—reaching U.S. landfall remain low, consistent with historical patterns where such intense landfalls average fewer than one per season even in normal years. Traders weigh these model consensus ranges and the remaining window against typical steering patterns that often direct storms away from the continental coastline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
16% probabilità
$340,569 Vol.
$340,569 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
16% probabilità
$340,569 Vol.
$340,569 Vol.
30 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforced expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period after only three brief tropical storms have formed to date. With peak activity approaching and no hurricanes yet observed, the odds of a Category 4 system—requiring sustained winds of 130–156 mph—reaching U.S. landfall remain low, consistent with historical patterns where such intense landfalls average fewer than one per season even in normal years. Traders weigh these model consensus ranges and the remaining window against typical steering patterns that often direct storms away from the continental coastline.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,569Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforced expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period after only three brief tropical storms have formed to date. With peak activity approaching and no hurricanes yet observed, the odds of a Category 4 system—requiring sustained winds of 130–156 mph—reaching U.S. landfall remain low, consistent with historical patterns where such intense landfalls average fewer than one per season even in normal years. Traders weigh these model consensus ranges and the remaining window against typical steering patterns that often direct storms away from the continental coastline.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,569Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforced expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period after only three brief tropical storms have formed to date. With peak activity approaching and no hurricanes yet observed, the odds of a Category 4 system—requiring sustained winds of 130–156 mph—reaching U.S. landfall remain low, consistent with historical patterns where such intense landfalls average fewer than one per season even in normal years. Traders weigh these model consensus ranges and the remaining window against typical steering patterns that often direct storms away from the continental coastline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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