**Trader sentiment for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane reflects a below-normal season outlook and the absence of any hurricanes through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity driven by atmospheric conditions that favor elevated wind shear and reduced organization of tropical systems. Three named tropical storms (Arthur in June, Bertha in July, Cristobal August 12–13) have formed, but none reached the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Current conditions remain quiet, with the National Hurricane Center indicating no development expected in the near term as of early August. The market’s near-even split between “no hurricane in August” (50.5%) and a late-August window (42.5% for August 27–31) captures genuine uncertainty around whether sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and shear will permit rapid intensification before the month ends. Earlier August dates carry low implied odds because the basin has stayed subdued through the climatological ramp-up period. Peak activity typically occurs in September, so traders are weighing the narrow remaining window in late August against the season’s overall suppression. New forecast updates from NOAA and model runs will likely move odds as conditions evolve.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuando si formerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico nel 2026?
Quando si formerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico nel 2026?
22 agosto - 26 agosto 2026 8%
17-21 agosto 2026 4%
13 agosto - 16 agosto 2026 0
27 agosto - 31 agosto 2026 0
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 ago 2026
13 agosto - 16 agosto 2026
42%
17-21 agosto 2026
4%
22 agosto - 26 agosto 2026
8%
27 agosto - 31 agosto 2026
38%
Nessun uragano atlantico si formerà nell'agosto 2026
51%
22 agosto - 26 agosto 2026 8%
17-21 agosto 2026 4%
13 agosto - 16 agosto 2026 0
27 agosto - 31 agosto 2026 0
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 ago 2026
13 agosto - 16 agosto 2026
$230 Vol.
42%
17-21 agosto 2026
$82 Vol.
4%
22 agosto - 26 agosto 2026
$57 Vol.
8%
27 agosto - 31 agosto 2026
$97 Vol.
38%
Nessun uragano atlantico si formerà nell'agosto 2026
$70 Vol.
51%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Trader sentiment for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane reflects a below-normal season outlook and the absence of any hurricanes through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity driven by atmospheric conditions that favor elevated wind shear and reduced organization of tropical systems. Three named tropical storms (Arthur in June, Bertha in July, Cristobal August 12–13) have formed, but none reached the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Current conditions remain quiet, with the National Hurricane Center indicating no development expected in the near term as of early August. The market’s near-even split between “no hurricane in August” (50.5%) and a late-August window (42.5% for August 27–31) captures genuine uncertainty around whether sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and shear will permit rapid intensification before the month ends. Earlier August dates carry low implied odds because the basin has stayed subdued through the climatological ramp-up period.
Peak activity typically occurs in September, so traders are weighing the narrow remaining window in late August against the season’s overall suppression. New forecast updates from NOAA and model runs will likely move odds as conditions evolve.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$537Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Trader sentiment for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane reflects a below-normal season outlook and the absence of any hurricanes through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity driven by atmospheric conditions that favor elevated wind shear and reduced organization of tropical systems. Three named tropical storms (Arthur in June, Bertha in July, Cristobal August 12–13) have formed, but none reached the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Current conditions remain quiet, with the National Hurricane Center indicating no development expected in the near term as of early August. The market’s near-even split between “no hurricane in August” (50.5%) and a late-August window (42.5% for August 27–31) captures genuine uncertainty around whether sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and shear will permit rapid intensification before the month ends. Earlier August dates carry low implied odds because the basin has stayed subdued through the climatological ramp-up period.
Peak activity typically occurs in September, so traders are weighing the narrow remaining window in late August against the season’s overall suppression. New forecast updates from NOAA and model runs will likely move odds as conditions evolve.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$537Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane reflects a below-normal season outlook and the absence of any hurricanes through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity driven by atmospheric conditions that favor elevated wind shear and reduced organization of tropical systems. Three named tropical storms (Arthur in June, Bertha in July, Cristobal August 12–13) have formed, but none reached the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Current conditions remain quiet, with the National Hurricane Center indicating no development expected in the near term as of early August. The market’s near-even split between “no hurricane in August” (50.5%) and a late-August window (42.5% for August 27–31) captures genuine uncertainty around whether sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and shear will permit rapid intensification before the month ends. Earlier August dates carry low implied odds because the basin has stayed subdued through the climatological ramp-up period. Peak activity typically occurs in September, so traders are weighing the narrow remaining window in late August against the season’s overall suppression. New forecast updates from NOAA and model runs will likely move odds as conditions evolve.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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