Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent, tied at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, has set a reduced baseline entering the melt season, with June extents ranking fifth lowest on record and early marginal sea melt accelerating losses along the Atlantic edge. Ongoing warm Arctic temperatures and thin ice conditions support continued decline toward a September minimum, aligning trader consensus with the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer range as the most probable outcome. Model projections from May place the annual low near 4.49 million square kilometers, while historical trends and current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF reinforce this positioning ahead of peak melt.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEstensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 39.6%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 28.1%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.3%
<4 milioni di km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
13%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
12%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
40%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
28%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
2%
5 mln+ kmq
8%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 39.6%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 28.1%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.3%
<4 milioni di km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
$30,436 Vol.
13%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
$6,551 Vol.
12%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
$2,920 Vol.
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
$3,128 Vol.
40%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
$6,805 Vol.
28%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
$2,898 Vol.
2%
5 mln+ kmq
$14,455 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent, tied at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, has set a reduced baseline entering the melt season, with June extents ranking fifth lowest on record and early marginal sea melt accelerating losses along the Atlantic edge. Ongoing warm Arctic temperatures and thin ice conditions support continued decline toward a September minimum, aligning trader consensus with the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer range as the most probable outcome. Model projections from May place the annual low near 4.49 million square kilometers, while historical trends and current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF reinforce this positioning ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$67,193Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent, tied at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, has set a reduced baseline entering the melt season, with June extents ranking fifth lowest on record and early marginal sea melt accelerating losses along the Atlantic edge. Ongoing warm Arctic temperatures and thin ice conditions support continued decline toward a September minimum, aligning trader consensus with the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer range as the most probable outcome. Model projections from May place the annual low near 4.49 million square kilometers, while historical trends and current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF reinforce this positioning ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$67,193Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent, tied at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, has set a reduced baseline entering the melt season, with June extents ranking fifth lowest on record and early marginal sea melt accelerating losses along the Atlantic edge. Ongoing warm Arctic temperatures and thin ice conditions support continued decline toward a September minimum, aligning trader consensus with the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer range as the most probable outcome. Model projections from May place the annual low near 4.49 million square kilometers, while historical trends and current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF reinforce this positioning ahead of peak melt.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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