Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers has provided a reduced ice starting point for the melt season, supporting trader consensus around 4.4–4.8 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Early August 2026 extent near 7.02 million square kilometers ranks among the lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade September decline. Key variables include summer atmospheric patterns such as cyclonic storms that can slow or accelerate melt, regional sea surface and air temperatures, and wind-driven ice transport. Model spread and potential late-season weather shifts maintain uncertainty across lower-probability bins below 4.2 or above 4.8 million square kilometers, with NSIDC daily updates and final minimum confirmation expected in September.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEstensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 27.6%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 23.3%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.9%
<4 milioni di km² 12%
$68,005 Vol.
$68,005 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
12%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
11%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
15%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
36%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
23%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
8%
5 mln+ kmq
3%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 27.6%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 23.3%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.9%
<4 milioni di km² 12%
$68,005 Vol.
$68,005 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
$30,474 Vol.
12%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
$6,580 Vol.
11%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
$3,097 Vol.
15%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
$3,128 Vol.
36%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
$6,805 Vol.
23%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
$3,447 Vol.
8%
5 mln+ kmq
$14,474 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers has provided a reduced ice starting point for the melt season, supporting trader consensus around 4.4–4.8 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Early August 2026 extent near 7.02 million square kilometers ranks among the lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade September decline. Key variables include summer atmospheric patterns such as cyclonic storms that can slow or accelerate melt, regional sea surface and air temperatures, and wind-driven ice transport. Model spread and potential late-season weather shifts maintain uncertainty across lower-probability bins below 4.2 or above 4.8 million square kilometers, with NSIDC daily updates and final minimum confirmation expected in September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,005Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers has provided a reduced ice starting point for the melt season, supporting trader consensus around 4.4–4.8 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Early August 2026 extent near 7.02 million square kilometers ranks among the lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade September decline. Key variables include summer atmospheric patterns such as cyclonic storms that can slow or accelerate melt, regional sea surface and air temperatures, and wind-driven ice transport. Model spread and potential late-season weather shifts maintain uncertainty across lower-probability bins below 4.2 or above 4.8 million square kilometers, with NSIDC daily updates and final minimum confirmation expected in September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,005Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers has provided a reduced ice starting point for the melt season, supporting trader consensus around 4.4–4.8 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Early August 2026 extent near 7.02 million square kilometers ranks among the lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade September decline. Key variables include summer atmospheric patterns such as cyclonic storms that can slow or accelerate melt, regional sea surface and air temperatures, and wind-driven ice transport. Model spread and potential late-season weather shifts maintain uncertainty across lower-probability bins below 4.2 or above 4.8 million square kilometers, with NSIDC daily updates and final minimum confirmation expected in September.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti