Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in mid-March 2026 and near-record low extents and volumes persisting into early May. Thin first-year ice across much of the central basin, confirmed by volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under elevated Arctic air temperatures and an emerging El Niño pattern that historically favors reduced ice cover. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and ongoing NSIDC monitoring will provide key updates on melt dynamics ahead of the September minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEstensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
<4 milioni di km² 57%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 13.9%
4,0-4,2 mln km² 13.0%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 8.7%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
57%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
13%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
9%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
6%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
2%
5 mln+ kmq
2%
<4 milioni di km² 57%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 13.9%
4,0-4,2 mln km² 13.0%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 8.7%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
$25,113 Vol.
57%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
$3,380 Vol.
13%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
$1,313 Vol.
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
$1,381 Vol.
9%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5 mln+ kmq
$13,195 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in mid-March 2026 and near-record low extents and volumes persisting into early May. Thin first-year ice across much of the central basin, confirmed by volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under elevated Arctic air temperatures and an emerging El Niño pattern that historically favors reduced ice cover. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and ongoing NSIDC monitoring will provide key updates on melt dynamics ahead of the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,529Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in mid-March 2026 and near-record low extents and volumes persisting into early May. Thin first-year ice across much of the central basin, confirmed by volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under elevated Arctic air temperatures and an emerging El Niño pattern that historically favors reduced ice cover. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and ongoing NSIDC monitoring will provide key updates on melt dynamics ahead of the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,529Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in mid-March 2026 and near-record low extents and volumes persisting into early May. Thin first-year ice across much of the central basin, confirmed by volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under elevated Arctic air temperatures and an emerging El Niño pattern that historically favors reduced ice cover. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and ongoing NSIDC monitoring will provide key updates on melt dynamics ahead of the September minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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