Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanto sarà forte la tempesta tropicale Saudel?
Quanto sarà forte la tempesta tropicale Saudel?
Tifone molto forte 55%
Tifone 21%
Tifone Violento 15%
Tempesta Tropicale Severa 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempesta tropicale
5%
Tempesta Tropicale Severa
6%
Tifone
26%
Tifone molto forte
55%
Tifone Violento
15%
Tifone molto forte 55%
Tifone 21%
Tifone Violento 15%
Tempesta Tropicale Severa 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempesta tropicale
$20 Vol.
5%
Tempesta Tropicale Severa
$19 Vol.
6%
Tifone
$37 Vol.
26%
Tifone molto forte
$35 Vol.
55%
Tifone Violento
$44 Vol.
15%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$154Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$154Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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