**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to an overnight low near 80°F for Miami on August 22, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 80-81°F bin at 50% implied probability.** Southerly flow, persistently high dew points in the mid-to-upper 70s, and typical late-summer moisture limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping into the mid- or upper 70s. Afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms and humid conditions further suppress the diurnal temperature range. Recent NWS updates highlight a Heat Advisory through the period, with guidance showing only modest dew-point relief possible this weekend and no approaching fronts or drier air masses to drive cooler readings. Historical August baselines for Miami lows cluster around 78–82°F under similar patterns, reinforcing the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 79–83°F range. Updated model runs and the next NHC/NOAA briefing on steering patterns remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied odds.