**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, according to USGS and global catalogs, producing the market’s 94% implied probability for zero events.** Recent monitoring shows only a handful of M6.0 events (Timor-Leste region on the 24th, Somalia on the 27th) plus scattered M5.5–5.8 activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major aftershock sequences. The prior cluster of larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on the 14th, M7.4 Colombia on the 10th, M6.7 Peru on the 20th) ended well before the market window. With the period nearly complete and no new model runs or observations indicating escalation, the strong consensus aligns with verified catalog data. A single late M6.5+ event on the final day or a magnitude revision could still shift the outcome, though current seismic patterns make this improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 24 al 30 agosto?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 24 al 30 agosto?
0 94%
1 6%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$10,457 Vol.
$10,457 Vol.
30 ago 2026
0
94%
1
6%
2
1%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
più di 5
<1%
0 94%
1 6%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$10,457 Vol.
$10,457 Vol.
30 ago 2026
0
$4,791 Vol.
94%
1
$1,522 Vol.
6%
2
$805 Vol.
1%
3
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
4
$551 Vol.
<1%
5
$670 Vol.
<1%
più di 5
$830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, according to USGS and global catalogs, producing the market’s 94% implied probability for zero events.** Recent monitoring shows only a handful of M6.0 events (Timor-Leste region on the 24th, Somalia on the 27th) plus scattered M5.5–5.8 activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major aftershock sequences. The prior cluster of larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on the 14th, M7.4 Colombia on the 10th, M6.7 Peru on the 20th) ended well before the market window. With the period nearly complete and no new model runs or observations indicating escalation, the strong consensus aligns with verified catalog data. A single late M6.5+ event on the final day or a magnitude revision could still shift the outcome, though current seismic patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$10,457Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, according to USGS and global catalogs, producing the market’s 94% implied probability for zero events.** Recent monitoring shows only a handful of M6.0 events (Timor-Leste region on the 24th, Somalia on the 27th) plus scattered M5.5–5.8 activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major aftershock sequences. The prior cluster of larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on the 14th, M7.4 Colombia on the 10th, M6.7 Peru on the 20th) ended well before the market window. With the period nearly complete and no new model runs or observations indicating escalation, the strong consensus aligns with verified catalog data. A single late M6.5+ event on the final day or a magnitude revision could still shift the outcome, though current seismic patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$10,457Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, according to USGS and global catalogs, producing the market’s 94% implied probability for zero events.** Recent monitoring shows only a handful of M6.0 events (Timor-Leste region on the 24th, Somalia on the 27th) plus scattered M5.5–5.8 activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major aftershock sequences. The prior cluster of larger quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on the 14th, M7.4 Colombia on the 10th, M6.7 Peru on the 20th) ended well before the market window. With the period nearly complete and no new model runs or observations indicating escalation, the strong consensus aligns with verified catalog data. A single late M6.5+ event on the final day or a magnitude revision could still shift the outcome, though current seismic patterns make this improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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