The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme historical rarity of such events, with the last confirmed case occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and global records indicating an average frequency of roughly one per century. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring document 47 active volcanoes worldwide, including ongoing moderate activity at Kīlauea and scattered phreatic events at sites like Dempo and Poás, yet none exhibit the rapid magma influx, widespread seismic swarms, or ground deformation required for VEI 6-scale explosivity exceeding 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta. Ongoing caldera refilling at locations such as Kikai remains on millennial timescales, while daily agency alerts continue to provide reliable early detection for any escalation in the remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
Grande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
$80,369 Vol.
$80,369 Vol.
31 mar 2027
$80,369 Vol.
$80,369 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme historical rarity of such events, with the last confirmed case occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and global records indicating an average frequency of roughly one per century. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring document 47 active volcanoes worldwide, including ongoing moderate activity at Kīlauea and scattered phreatic events at sites like Dempo and Poás, yet none exhibit the rapid magma influx, widespread seismic swarms, or ground deformation required for VEI 6-scale explosivity exceeding 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta. Ongoing caldera refilling at locations such as Kikai remains on millennial timescales, while daily agency alerts continue to provide reliable early detection for any escalation in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$80,369Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme historical rarity of such events, with the last confirmed case occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and global records indicating an average frequency of roughly one per century. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring document 47 active volcanoes worldwide, including ongoing moderate activity at Kīlauea and scattered phreatic events at sites like Dempo and Poás, yet none exhibit the rapid magma influx, widespread seismic swarms, or ground deformation required for VEI 6-scale explosivity exceeding 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta. Ongoing caldera refilling at locations such as Kikai remains on millennial timescales, while daily agency alerts continue to provide reliable early detection for any escalation in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$80,369Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme historical rarity of such events, with the last confirmed case occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and global records indicating an average frequency of roughly one per century. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring document 47 active volcanoes worldwide, including ongoing moderate activity at Kīlauea and scattered phreatic events at sites like Dempo and Poás, yet none exhibit the rapid magma influx, widespread seismic swarms, or ground deformation required for VEI 6-scale explosivity exceeding 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta. Ongoing caldera refilling at locations such as Kikai remains on millennial timescales, while daily agency alerts continue to provide reliable early detection for any escalation in the remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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