Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
0% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna has maintained continuous effusive and Strombolian activity through 2026, including lava flows from fissures in the Valle del Leone and Bove and explosive episodes at the Voragine crater that have generated ash plumes reaching 7 km. Official monitoring by Italy’s INGV shows sustained tremor and intermittent fountaining with ashfall affecting Catania airspace, yet these events align with the volcano’s typical pattern of moderate, short-lived episodes rather than sustained higher explosivity. With the year more than halfway complete and no confirmed VEI 2+ paroxysms documented to date, trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” price appears driven by historical frequency data favoring smaller-scale output and the absence of rapid escalation indicators in recent model runs. Upcoming INGV updates on tremor trends and plume heights will provide key signals for any shift in implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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