Mount Etna's persistent 2026 unrest, tracked by INGV-Osservatorio Etneo, underpins the 72.5% market-implied odds for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ eruption by year-end. A new effusive phase began January 1 with fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove extending 3.2 km before cooling mid-month, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova crater generating brief ash plumes and a M4.5 earthquake. April brought renewed summit activity, moderate thermal flux (28 MW on April 29), and evidence of rare 80-km-deep mantle magma tapping. While events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna's history of frequent paroxysms—like the 2018 VEI 2 event—supports trader bets amid ongoing seismic, SO2, and deformation monitoring. INGV weekly bulletins will flag intensification risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's persistent 2026 unrest, tracked by INGV-Osservatorio Etneo, underpins the 72.5% market-implied odds for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ eruption by year-end. A new effusive phase began January 1 with fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove extending 3.2 km before cooling mid-month, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova crater generating brief ash plumes and a M4.5 earthquake. April brought renewed summit activity, moderate thermal flux (28 MW on April 29), and evidence of rare 80-km-deep mantle magma tapping. While events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna's history of frequent paroxysms—like the 2018 VEI 2 event—supports trader bets amid ongoing seismic, SO2, and deformation monitoring. INGV weekly bulletins will flag intensification risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$16Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's persistent 2026 unrest, tracked by INGV-Osservatorio Etneo, underpins the 72.5% market-implied odds for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ eruption by year-end. A new effusive phase began January 1 with fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove extending 3.2 km before cooling mid-month, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova crater generating brief ash plumes and a M4.5 earthquake. April brought renewed summit activity, moderate thermal flux (28 MW on April 29), and evidence of rare 80-km-deep mantle magma tapping. While events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna's history of frequent paroxysms—like the 2018 VEI 2 event—supports trader bets amid ongoing seismic, SO2, and deformation monitoring. INGV weekly bulletins will flag intensification risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$16Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's persistent 2026 unrest, tracked by INGV-Osservatorio Etneo, underpins the 72.5% market-implied odds for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ eruption by year-end. A new effusive phase began January 1 with fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove extending 3.2 km before cooling mid-month, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova crater generating brief ash plumes and a M4.5 earthquake. April brought renewed summit activity, moderate thermal flux (28 MW on April 29), and evidence of rare 80-km-deep mantle magma tapping. While events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna's history of frequent paroxysms—like the 2018 VEI 2 event—supports trader bets amid ongoing seismic, SO2, and deformation monitoring. INGV weekly bulletins will flag intensification risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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