No large eruptions (VEI ≥4) have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, aligning with the market-implied 59.5% probability for zero events and 34.5% for one. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds reached globally only about 0.6 times per year on average according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. Ongoing unrest at sites like Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only smaller ash emissions and lava flows below these criteria, while recent model consensus and monitoring data show no immediate escalation signals. Year-end magmatic recharge at restless systems remains the main variable that could shift odds toward one qualifying event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
Quante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,078,891 Vol.
$1,078,891 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,078,891 Vol.
$1,078,891 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$477,303 Vol.
60%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No large eruptions (VEI ≥4) have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, aligning with the market-implied 59.5% probability for zero events and 34.5% for one. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds reached globally only about 0.6 times per year on average according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. Ongoing unrest at sites like Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only smaller ash emissions and lava flows below these criteria, while recent model consensus and monitoring data show no immediate escalation signals. Year-end magmatic recharge at restless systems remains the main variable that could shift odds toward one qualifying event.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,078,891Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No large eruptions (VEI ≥4) have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, aligning with the market-implied 59.5% probability for zero events and 34.5% for one. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds reached globally only about 0.6 times per year on average according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. Ongoing unrest at sites like Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only smaller ash emissions and lava flows below these criteria, while recent model consensus and monitoring data show no immediate escalation signals. Year-end magmatic recharge at restless systems remains the main variable that could shift odds toward one qualifying event.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,078,891Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No large eruptions (VEI ≥4) have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, aligning with the market-implied 59.5% probability for zero events and 34.5% for one. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds reached globally only about 0.6 times per year on average according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. Ongoing unrest at sites like Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only smaller ash emissions and lava flows below these criteria, while recent model consensus and monitoring data show no immediate escalation signals. Year-end magmatic recharge at restless systems remains the main variable that could shift odds toward one qualifying event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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