SpaceX’s Starship program shows solid booster reusability progress through multiple successful “chopstick” tower catches of Super Heavy stages in 2025–2026 flights, including the first booster reuse, while the upper-stage ship continues to face heat-shield and precise landing hurdles that have limited full-stack recovery. The 50.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028 reflect this split: rapid iteration on V3 hardware and avionics supports aggressive 2026 timelines for catching both stages, yet repeated ship reentry anomalies and test-flight outcomes keep the outcome closely contested. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming V3 flights attempting ship recovery, in-space propellant transfer demonstrations, and any regulatory approvals that could accelerate operational cadence.