Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 77.5% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants in independent evaluations as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent frontier positioning and practical availability as durable advantages heading into late November, while OpenAI’s lower 8.5% reflects partial access restrictions on its newest flagship and Google’s more specialized but narrower strengths. Other labs trail significantly on the same metrics. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Anthropic updates or verified benchmark shifts before the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di novembre?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di novembre?
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
Baidu 4.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
9%
7%
Baidu
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Mistral
4%
Amazon
4%
ByteDance
4%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
Baidu 4.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
Anthropic
$1,655 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$334 Vol.
9%
$277 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$125 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$111 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$158 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$155 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$186 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$158 Vol.
3%
Meta
$123 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$84 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$156 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$120 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$74 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 77.5% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants in independent evaluations as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent frontier positioning and practical availability as durable advantages heading into late November, while OpenAI’s lower 8.5% reflects partial access restrictions on its newest flagship and Google’s more specialized but narrower strengths. Other labs trail significantly on the same metrics. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Anthropic updates or verified benchmark shifts before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,417Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 77.5% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants in independent evaluations as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent frontier positioning and practical availability as durable advantages heading into late November, while OpenAI’s lower 8.5% reflects partial access restrictions on its newest flagship and Google’s more specialized but narrower strengths. Other labs trail significantly on the same metrics. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Anthropic updates or verified benchmark shifts before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$4,417Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 77.5% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants in independent evaluations as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent frontier positioning and practical availability as durable advantages heading into late November, while OpenAI’s lower 8.5% reflects partial access restrictions on its newest flagship and Google’s more specialized but narrower strengths. Other labs trail significantly on the same metrics. Key near-term catalysts include any additional Anthropic updates or verified benchmark shifts before the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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