USGS data establish that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the largest recorded event reaching only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. This physical constraint, reinforced by the absence of any precursors or model indications for an extreme rupture, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. With just months remaining until year-end, recent 2026 activity has produced multiple magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold, aligning trader consensus with established seismological limits while acknowledging that unforeseen measurement revisions remain theoretically possible though unsupported by current monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
<1% probabilità
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the largest recorded event reaching only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. This physical constraint, reinforced by the absence of any precursors or model indications for an extreme rupture, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. With just months remaining until year-end, recent 2026 activity has produced multiple magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold, aligning trader consensus with established seismological limits while acknowledging that unforeseen measurement revisions remain theoretically possible though unsupported by current monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the largest recorded event reaching only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. This physical constraint, reinforced by the absence of any precursors or model indications for an extreme rupture, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. With just months remaining until year-end, recent 2026 activity has produced multiple magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold, aligning trader consensus with established seismological limits while acknowledging that unforeseen measurement revisions remain theoretically possible though unsupported by current monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data establish that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the largest recorded event reaching only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. This physical constraint, reinforced by the absence of any precursors or model indications for an extreme rupture, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. With just months remaining until year-end, recent 2026 activity has produced multiple magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold, aligning trader consensus with established seismological limits while acknowledging that unforeseen measurement revisions remain theoretically possible though unsupported by current monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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