Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming geophysical evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are impossible, as they would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far exceeding known tectonic plate boundaries—with the largest recorded event remaining the 1960 Chile quake at magnitude 9.5. Global seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 9.0+ events in 2024–2026, with recent activity limited to mid-sized quakes below magnitude 6.0 as of mid-May 2026. With under eight months until resolution, the short timeframe further bolsters the 95.3% implied probability of "No." Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented mega-thrust rupture defying current fault mechanics, though USGS real-time data updates could prompt minor adjustments if anomalous strain accumulates on major subduction zones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
$602,268 Vol.
$602,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$602,268 Vol.
$602,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming geophysical evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are impossible, as they would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far exceeding known tectonic plate boundaries—with the largest recorded event remaining the 1960 Chile quake at magnitude 9.5. Global seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 9.0+ events in 2024–2026, with recent activity limited to mid-sized quakes below magnitude 6.0 as of mid-May 2026. With under eight months until resolution, the short timeframe further bolsters the 95.3% implied probability of "No." Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented mega-thrust rupture defying current fault mechanics, though USGS real-time data updates could prompt minor adjustments if anomalous strain accumulates on major subduction zones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$602,268Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming geophysical evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are impossible, as they would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far exceeding known tectonic plate boundaries—with the largest recorded event remaining the 1960 Chile quake at magnitude 9.5. Global seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 9.0+ events in 2024–2026, with recent activity limited to mid-sized quakes below magnitude 6.0 as of mid-May 2026. With under eight months until resolution, the short timeframe further bolsters the 95.3% implied probability of "No." Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented mega-thrust rupture defying current fault mechanics, though USGS real-time data updates could prompt minor adjustments if anomalous strain accumulates on major subduction zones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$602,268Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming geophysical evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are impossible, as they would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far exceeding known tectonic plate boundaries—with the largest recorded event remaining the 1960 Chile quake at magnitude 9.5. Global seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 9.0+ events in 2024–2026, with recent activity limited to mid-sized quakes below magnitude 6.0 as of mid-May 2026. With under eight months until resolution, the short timeframe further bolsters the 95.3% implied probability of "No." Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented mega-thrust rupture defying current fault mechanics, though USGS real-time data updates could prompt minor adjustments if anomalous strain accumulates on major subduction zones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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