**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 96.5% stems from continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA NEO monitoring showing no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing 100 kt or greater energy release through the end of 2026.** Ongoing surveys have added thousands of NEOs this year without identifying any 2026 impactors in the relevant size range (roughly 10–50 meters for stony bodies yielding that yield), while the JPL Fireball database records only rare historical events at this scale, such as the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Small imminent impactors detected in 2026 were meter-scale and far below threshold. Although undiscovered objects could theoretically produce an airburst, improved detection completeness and the low base rate—estimated at a few percent annually—support the strong market-implied odds, with remaining uncertainty tied mainly to potential late-year undetected entries.