Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid co-orbiting Kuiper Belt objects. Recent advocacy from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman in late April 2026 congressional testimony, urging to "make Pluto a planet again," sparked debate and lifted "Yes" odds modestly, highlighting geophysical alternatives that prioritize roundness and stellar orbit over dynamical dominance. However, with no IAU General Assembly until 2027 and no symposia addressing planetary definitions before the deadline, traders see insufficient momentum for swift change amid entrenched scientific consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPlutone riclassificato come pianeta entro il 30 giugno?
Plutone riclassificato come pianeta entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$21,827 Vol.
$21,827 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$21,827 Vol.
$21,827 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid co-orbiting Kuiper Belt objects. Recent advocacy from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman in late April 2026 congressional testimony, urging to "make Pluto a planet again," sparked debate and lifted "Yes" odds modestly, highlighting geophysical alternatives that prioritize roundness and stellar orbit over dynamical dominance. However, with no IAU General Assembly until 2027 and no symposia addressing planetary definitions before the deadline, traders see insufficient momentum for swift change amid entrenched scientific consensus.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Mercato aperto: Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$21,827Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid co-orbiting Kuiper Belt objects. Recent advocacy from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman in late April 2026 congressional testimony, urging to "make Pluto a planet again," sparked debate and lifted "Yes" odds modestly, highlighting geophysical alternatives that prioritize roundness and stellar orbit over dynamical dominance. However, with no IAU General Assembly until 2027 and no symposia addressing planetary definitions before the deadline, traders see insufficient momentum for swift change amid entrenched scientific consensus.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Volume
$21,827Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid co-orbiting Kuiper Belt objects. Recent advocacy from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman in late April 2026 congressional testimony, urging to "make Pluto a planet again," sparked debate and lifted "Yes" odds modestly, highlighting geophysical alternatives that prioritize roundness and stellar orbit over dynamical dominance. However, with no IAU General Assembly until 2027 and no symposia addressing planetary definitions before the deadline, traders see insufficient momentum for swift change amid entrenched scientific consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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