SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
3% probabilità
$27,906 Vol.
$27,906 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
3% probabilità
$27,906 Vol.
$27,906 Vol.
31 dic 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Mercato aperto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$27,906Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$27,906Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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