Recent Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range guidance and ensemble model runs anchor trader consensus around 28–29°C for Incheon on August 22, reflecting the typical late-August seasonal decline in Seoul-area maxima alongside elevated thundershower chances that cap afternoon insolation. Daytime highs are currently projected near 28–31°C under moderate humidity, light variable winds, and partial cloud cover, keeping outcomes close to climatological norms while introducing modest uncertainty from convective timing and coverage. These conditions contrast with earlier August heatwave peaks, as weakening high-pressure influence allows greater moisture influx and limits radiative heating. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered because resolution hinges on the precise official maximum recorded at the Incheon station, with fresh model updates expected overnight before final observations.