Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows in Seattle near 58–60 °F for August 22, with scattered showers and increased marine-layer stratus expected to limit radiational cooling. The close contest between the 51 °F-or-below (45 %) and 64–65 °F (44 %) bins reflects divergence among short-range models on the depth of onshore flow and timing of cloud cover, which can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology places typical daily minima near 57 °F, but any clearing overnight or delayed frontal passage could push readings toward the mid-60s, while stronger cooling under persistent clouds favors the lower range. Updated NHC and local mesonet observations through tonight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.