Recent increases in active listings—up nearly 50% year-over-year in the DC MSA—and a contraction of roughly 116,000 jobs in federal and related private employment have eased demand pressures and contributed to modest price softening. Zillow data through July 2026 showed Washington, DC home values at approximately $577K with a 1.7% annual decline, while broader metro median sale prices hovered near $585K–$650K amid rising days on market and more balanced conditions. Mortgage rates and seasonal factors continue to influence near-term movements, with limited new economic releases expected before September 30 resolution. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the $512K–$518K and $518K–$524K bins reflects trader assessment of these cooling dynamics versus resilience in core segments, underscoring the narrow range of likely outcomes over the next six weeks.