Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIlia Topuria 68%
Arman Tsarukyan 19.3%
Justin Gaethje 8.5%
Charles Oliveira 7.3%
$605,359 Vol.
$605,359 Vol.
Ilia Topuria
68%
Arman Tsarukyan
16%
Charles Oliveira
7%
Max Holloway
<1%
Justin Gaethje
12%
Paddy Pimblett
<1%
Dan Hooker
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
Renato Moicano
<1%
Fighter A
<1%
Ilia Topuria 68%
Arman Tsarukyan 19.3%
Justin Gaethje 8.5%
Charles Oliveira 7.3%
$605,359 Vol.
$605,359 Vol.
Ilia Topuria
68%
Arman Tsarukyan
16%
Charles Oliveira
7%
Max Holloway
<1%
Justin Gaethje
12%
Paddy Pimblett
<1%
Dan Hooker
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
Renato Moicano
<1%
Fighter A
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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