**Regulatory uncertainty, capacity constraints, and political risks have anchored trader consensus toward "No" at 78.5% implied probability for Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple began lobbying the Trump administration in mid-2026 for assurances against Entity List placement after CXMT appeared on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged military ties, driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages that prompted iPad and MacBook price hikes. Reports indicate Apple has tested or explored CXMT LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 parts mainly for China-market devices, but CXMT’s fabs run at ~95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027, limiting meaningful volumes. Analysts note any supply would offer marginal shortage-risk mitigation rather than cost relief, while congressional opposition and U.S.-China trade tensions raise escalation risks. No confirmed purchases or broad supply agreements have materialized by September 2026, sustaining the lean against a qualifying transaction before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any White House clearance, CXMT capacity expansions, or official Apple supplier announcements.