Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by Middle East supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and related geopolitical tensions, remain the dominant factor pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages to $4.44 per gallon as of mid-September 2026, with the lowest state averages (Indiana and Texas) holding near $3.92–$3.93. Refinery margins, tight product inventories, and seasonal demand have amplified these crude costs, preventing broader declines despite U.S. production strength. Trader sentiment on thresholds like $3.75 reflects the lag between spot crude movements and pump prices, alongside state-level tax and distribution differences that create the widest regional spreads. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation in Hormuz flows, EIA inventory reports, and broader risk appetite shifts in energy markets that could ease pressure on the lowest-priced states.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
20 set 2026
20 settembre
14%
30 settembre
36%
31 ottobre
18%
$376 Vol.
20 settembre
$128 Vol.
14%
30 settembre
$40 Vol.
36%
31 ottobre
$208 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by Middle East supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and related geopolitical tensions, remain the dominant factor pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages to $4.44 per gallon as of mid-September 2026, with the lowest state averages (Indiana and Texas) holding near $3.92–$3.93. Refinery margins, tight product inventories, and seasonal demand have amplified these crude costs, preventing broader declines despite U.S. production strength. Trader sentiment on thresholds like $3.75 reflects the lag between spot crude movements and pump prices, alongside state-level tax and distribution differences that create the widest regional spreads. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation in Hormuz flows, EIA inventory reports, and broader risk appetite shifts in energy markets that could ease pressure on the lowest-priced states.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Volume
$376Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by Middle East supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and related geopolitical tensions, remain the dominant factor pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages to $4.44 per gallon as of mid-September 2026, with the lowest state averages (Indiana and Texas) holding near $3.92–$3.93. Refinery margins, tight product inventories, and seasonal demand have amplified these crude costs, preventing broader declines despite U.S. production strength. Trader sentiment on thresholds like $3.75 reflects the lag between spot crude movements and pump prices, alongside state-level tax and distribution differences that create the widest regional spreads. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation in Hormuz flows, EIA inventory reports, and broader risk appetite shifts in energy markets that could ease pressure on the lowest-priced states.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volume
$376Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by Middle East supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and related geopolitical tensions, remain the dominant factor pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages to $4.44 per gallon as of mid-September 2026, with the lowest state averages (Indiana and Texas) holding near $3.92–$3.93. Refinery margins, tight product inventories, and seasonal demand have amplified these crude costs, preventing broader declines despite U.S. production strength. Trader sentiment on thresholds like $3.75 reflects the lag between spot crude movements and pump prices, alongside state-level tax and distribution differences that create the widest regional spreads. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation in Hormuz flows, EIA inventory reports, and broader risk appetite shifts in energy markets that could ease pressure on the lowest-priced states.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti