No goalkeeper has scored in a FIFA World Cup finals match across decades of competition, establishing a clear historical baseline that underpins the 95%+ trader consensus on “No.” Modern tactics keep keepers anchored in their penalty area, where set-piece forays or long clearances carry high risk and low conversion rates even among specialists. Recent form across major tournaments reinforces this pattern, with no meaningful shift in approach or rule changes that would elevate the chance of a breakthrough during the 2026 edition. Rare scenarios such as a trailing side pushing its keeper forward for a late corner or a misplayed clearance could still produce an outlier goal, though such events remain statistically remote given established patterns in high-stakes matches.