**Michael Olise holds a 59% implied probability edge over Ousmane Dembélé in total 2026 World Cup goals, driven primarily by Olise’s red-hot recent form and Dembélé’s recurring injury concerns.** Olise netted a hat-trick in France’s final pre-tournament friendly against Northern Ireland on June 8, extending his international tally to seven goals in 17 caps while showcasing elite finishing, dribbling, and chance creation. The Bayern Munich winger enters the tournament after a standout club season that included 22 goals and strong creative output, positioning him as a central attacking threat alongside Kylian Mbappé in Les Bleus’ lineup. In contrast, Dembélé—the Ballon d’Or winner—has battled multiple muscular issues throughout 2025-26, including hamstring and calf strains that limited his availability and raised fitness questions heading into the tournament. France’s group-stage schedule (starting June 16) offers both players ample minutes in theory, yet Olise’s current sharpness and full fitness give traders greater confidence in his goal volume relative to a potentially managed or limited Dembélé. The head-to-head remains competitive given France’s depth and the shared attacking minutes, but Olise’s momentum and injury resilience explain the modest market tilt in his favor.