The expanded 2026 World Cup format, with 48 teams and 32 knockout-stage matches, stands as the dominant driver of expectations for penalty shootouts, as these remain the sole pathway to resolution after 90 minutes plus 30 minutes of extra time. Historically, roughly 20-25% of World Cup knockout fixtures reach penalties, a rate that produced a record five such outcomes in 2022, including the final. The addition of a round of 32 increases total elimination games substantially over prior 32-team editions, directly raising the volume of opportunities without altering group-stage rules that permit draws. No confirmed changes to extra-time protocols or shootout procedures have taken effect, though ancillary pace-of-play adjustments could indirectly influence fatigue and decision-making in later rounds.